Kamala Harris is now leading Donald Trump by six percentage points in the latest ABC News Washington Post Ipsos poll. That is a dramatic turnaround. Harris is holding a 51% to 45% lead among likely voters nationwide. [00:00:17] New polling in the lead up to the Democratic National Convention, an event that we're currently at, indicates that Harris is in fact increasing her lead against Donald Trump in the national polls, which is a big deal. Usually when you hear about the Democratic contender leading, especially when it came [00:00:35] to Biden, he wasn't quite leading enough in the national polls to put Democratic voters minds at ease. But things are starting to change now that Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee. So a new ABC News Washington Post Ipsos national poll showed that Harris is in fact leading by six points among likely voters. [00:00:55] So take a look at this. Harris is at 51%, whereas Donald Trump is at 45%. Now in addition, a CBS news YouGov poll gave Harris a three point lead nationally. But while Harris has that lead when it comes to the, you know, [00:01:11] national polling, a CBS news YouGov poll, the same CBS News Gallup poll found that she is, in fact tied with Donald Trump in some of the critical battleground states. So take a look at this. Yeah, it's plus three nationally for Harris. [00:01:28] But the fact is that while everyone's opinion counts in the nation, it's not the national popular vote that decides the presidency. It's the battleground states, the ones that happen to be closest. And that our estimate is, is even state by state. [00:01:43] They're all close. That's what you need to know. So what does that mean going into the convention, Vlad? Let me show you this. First and foremost, we got here back to this even race where Joe Biden had been trailing, because when Harris became the nominee, we saw a boost in enthusiasm among Democrats, more of them starting in July [00:02:04] and heading into right up to now. Keep saying they're going to vote. What does that tell you? It tells you part of this convention is going to be Democrats trying to keep that enthusiasm going. [00:02:21] And look, while she is pretty much tied with Donald Trump when it comes to the critical battleground states, I want you all to remember how much worse things were when Biden was the Democratic nominee, because he was not tied. In fact, Biden was losing in the critical battleground states. [00:02:39] So, according to the CBS poll, the percentage of Democrats saying that they definitely will vote has actually gone up 6% since Biden dropped out of the race. So take a look at this. You know, back in July, let's go back to the previous graphic, please. [00:02:55] So if you look back at July 18th, when it came to Democrats, 81% of them said that they're very likely to vote. That has now increased to 87%. So that's a big deal. You know, people were planning on sitting out the presidential election and not casting their ballots because they weren't really excited. [00:03:13] And Harris has managed to excite Democratic voters. More of them are now planning to vote. Other polls have, by the way, found that Harris has gained a small lead in the critical battleground states, in fact, potentially large enough to give her the Electoral College majority [00:03:29] that she needs in order to win. And that includes advantages that she's holding in at least four state polls, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But again, it's still very close. [00:03:44] According to the latest FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Trump would only need to flip one of the three blue wall states Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin in order to win in November. As long as he takes all of the states where he is currently ahead of Harris [00:04:01] in polling averages. So I give you that caveat because it's an important caveat. It would be a mistake to get too confident, too cocky. This is still going to be a close race, and it's important to keep that in mind. Yeah. So look guys, you should definitely be excited by these numbers [00:04:17] but not overly excited. Hey don't scroll away, come back, come back. Because before the video continues, we just want to urge you to lend your support to TYT. You power our honest reporting. You do it at twitter.com team and we love you for it. [00:04:33] So let me explain. Give you the full context. So we told you Biden was down in the national polls and that by the end it was getting to three, 4 or 5 points. That's disastrous. Totally unrecoverable, because you got to have the Democrat win by five in the national polls. [00:04:48] Now, as I read you the first poll, she's up by six. So now we're at a bare minimum. We're back in it. 5145. Right at a bare minimum. In fact, if that was if that's definitely true, then she wins. If the election was held today okay. [00:05:04] Now again, the other poll shows you the blue wall. These are the three states that Democrats absolutely, positively need. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are now all in Harris's camp by at least four points. And those you just have to win by one vote. [00:05:20] You don't need to win by five points or anything along those lines. I win by more than one vote. Otherwise Trump will cry forever and ever and ever. So we'll like 100 million MAGA guys, etc. But those are the three states you need. And Arizona. [00:05:35] She's also leading by four, so she's got one more than what she needs. But is this a comfortable margin? No, no, not at all. Because a lot of this is within the margin of error. A lot of this is one poll or two polls, not a collection of a number of polls. [00:05:50] And so if the election were held today, I think Kamala Harris would squeak it out. But I'm not at all sure Trump still has. It's still close to 50 over 50 if it were held today. So now the good news is momentum is massively on Kamala Harris's side. [00:06:06] So we're surging and going into the Democratic convention. Another lots of bad news here for Trump. So he you're supposed to get a bounce from your convention. But they stole his convention thunder by Biden dropping out 72 hours after the convention. Kamala Harris coming in that. [00:06:23] That's it. There goes all their good press. It's over now. The press all goes to the Democrats. Then she did smart things to get more people back. And in fact, now she's regained the youth vote by about 20 points as she's regained, the black vote by about the same margins as Democrats [00:06:43] historically win the black vote. So about ten point loss there for Donald Trump. These are all incredibly good signs. The only giant note of caution. The small one is, hey, this thing's not over. And even now, after all these good gains, we're still at near 5050. [00:07:01] But the big note of caution is many things can happen. Guys including what looks like it might be imminent. That's why we led the show with it earlier is a potential giant war in the Middle East. And so what happens with a if that breaks out? [00:07:17] No one knows. I don't even know. You know how I love to predict things, but you need information before you make predictions. Otherwise it's ridiculous and silly. We base it on information and you can't possibly know what's going to happen from a war. So we'll have to see as things go along. [00:07:34] But there are still significant curveballs ahead, so this is not the time to celebrate. It's time to double down on the energy to make sure that it keeps going in this direction. Thanks for watching The Young Turks really appreciate it. Another way to show support is through YouTube memberships. You'll get to interact with us more. There's live chat emojis, badges. [00:07:54] You've got emojis of me Anna John Jr. So those are super fun. But you also get playback of our exclusive member only shows and specials right after they air. So all of that, all you got to do is click that join button right underneath the video. [00:08:09] Thank you.